Polymarket (Global)
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
Dilution of Iran's Uranium
Updated 41m ago · Settles Jan 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
18¢
Bid 17¢ · Ask 19¢
Pricedger fair probability
15%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+1.6 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
187,643
Fine-print risk
62/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market resolves to “Yes” if a written diplomatic instrument between the United States and Iran that establishes a commitment for Iranian-controlled enriched uranium to be downblended or diluted has been mutually signed or otherwise formally adopted by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” A qualifying written instrument must provide for any quantity of enriched uranium held b…
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