Polymarket (Global)
Will Christopher Luxon be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?
Christopher Luxon
Updated 59m ago · Settles Nov 8, 26
Polymarket (Global) YES
49¢
Bid 47¢ · Ask 50¢
Pricedger fair probability
48%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
-1.4 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
47,952
Fine-print risk
42/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the Governor-General as Prime Minister of New Zealand. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count towa…
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