Polymarket (Global)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
Updated 20m ago · Settles Jul 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
8¢
Bid 7¢ · Ask 8¢
Pricedger fair probability
4%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+2.9 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
472,631
Fine-print risk
36/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this…
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