Polymarket (Global)
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Updated 14m ago · Settles Jan 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
9¢
Bid 7¢ · Ask 11¢
Pricedger fair probability
8%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
-1.2 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
350,437
Fine-print risk
2/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the…
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