Polymarket (Global)
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
Updated 23m ago · Settles Dec 31, 26
Polymarket (Global) YES
10¢
Bid 9¢ · Ask 10¢
Pricedger fair probability
7%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+1.9 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
195,061
Fine-print risk
42/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/. This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise,…
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