Polymarket (Global)
Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium?
Enriched Uranium Surrender
Updated 25m ago · Settles Jan 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
11¢
Bid 9¢ · Ask 12¢
Pricedger fair probability
7%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+1.7 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
93,927
Fine-print risk
68/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market resolves to “Yes” if a written diplomatic instrument between the United States and Iran that commits Iran to surrender any quantity of enriched uranium has been mutually signed or otherwise formally adopted by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” A qualifying written instrument must explicitly commit Iran to the transfer of a portion or all of its enriched uranium stoc…
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