Polymarket (Global)
Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?
Updated 13m ago · Settles Dec 31, 26
Polymarket (Global) YES
35¢
Bid 20¢ · Ask 50¢
Pricedger fair probability
35%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
-14.7 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
55,747
Fine-print risk
2/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the State of Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time…
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