Polymarket (Global)
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?
#3
Updated 14m ago · Settles Jan 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
29¢
Bid 20¢ · Ask 38¢
Pricedger fair probability
28%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
-7.7 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
68,400
Fine-print risk
12/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Chinese company owns a model that ranks within the top 3, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-sty…
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