Polymarket (Global)
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium
Updated 30m ago · Settles Jan 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
13¢
Bid 12¢ · Ask 13¢
Pricedger fair probability
10%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+2.5 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
190,116
Fine-print risk
62/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market resolves to “Yes” if a written diplomatic instrument between the United States and Iran that creates a moratorium on all enrichment of uranium for Iran for a period of at least one year has been mutually signed or otherwise formally adopted by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” The moratorium must be for a period of at least one year. A commitment to end enrichment p…
Full clause-by-clause forensic audit is available inside the terminal.
Whale flow & Smart Money Divergence
See whether large traders are positioning with or against the price move on this contract.
Model ensemble & AI Deep Dive
Quant, base-rate and AI estimates compared on one scale, with clause-level fine-print analysis.
Quarter-Kelly paper sizing
Exact stake, expected value and scenario matrix for your bankroll — paper trading only.
Locked previews show illustrative sample figures.
The full Pricedger analysis is inside the terminal
Visible Ensemble consensus, AI Deep Dive with clause-by-clause fine print, whale flow and Smart Money Divergence, cross-exchange gaps, price history and quarter-Kelly paper sizing. 7-day free trial, no card required.
See the full Pricedger analysisResearch and paper trading only — not financial advice. Model estimates can be wrong. Not affiliated with Kalshi or Polymarket. Methodology