Polymarket (Global)
Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record?
5
Updated 5m ago · Settles Mar 2, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
0¢
Bid 0¢ · Ask 0¢
Pricedger fair probability
1%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+1.0 pts
On YES after fees · low confidence
Volume
902,160
Fine-print risk
34/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will res…
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