Polymarket (Global)
Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?
2 (50 bps)
Updated 4m ago · Settles Dec 31, 26
Polymarket (Global) YES
67¢
Bid 66¢ · Ask 67¢
Pricedger fair probability
67%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
-0.2 pts
On YES after fees · low confidence
Volume
154,783
Fine-print risk
2/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed hikes rates…
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