Polymarket (Global)
US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through December 31, 2026?
December 31
Updated 10m ago · Settles Jan 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
34¢
Bid 33¢ · Ask 35¢
Pricedger fair probability
33%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+0.3 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
56,551
Fine-print risk
82/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surfa…
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