Polymarket (Global)
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 22?
November 22
Updated 15m ago · Settles Nov 22, 26
Polymarket (Global) YES
51¢
Bid 50¢ · Ask 51¢
Pricedger fair probability
51%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
-0.5 pts
On YES after fees · low confidence
Volume
49,685
Fine-print risk
72/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran is completed, where the first day of that period is between market creation and the specified date (Iran Standard Time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (Iran Standard Time) after the most recen…
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