Polymarket (Global)
US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?
Updated 2m ago · Settles Jan 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
8¢
Bid 7¢ · Ask 8¢
Pricedger fair probability
4%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+2.9 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
61,747
Fine-print risk
52/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the governments of the United States and China announce an AI pacing agreement between them by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An AI pacing agreement means an agreement under which both governments commit to at least one of the following for AI developers within their jurisdictions: conditioning the training, releasing, or deploying AI…
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