Polymarket (Global)
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by October 31?
October 31
Updated 15m ago · Settles Nov 1, 26
Polymarket (Global) YES
10¢
Bid 9¢ · Ask 10¢
Pricedger fair probability
6%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+2.7 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
29,503
Fine-print risk
18/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oi…
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