Polymarket (Global)
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?
Updated 8m ago · Settles Jan 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
6¢
Bid 5¢ · Ask 6¢
Pricedger fair probability
3%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+2.2 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
76,911
Fine-print risk
42/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action. Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will no…
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