Polymarket (Global)
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
Updated 25m ago · Settles Jan 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
5¢
Bid 4¢ · Ask 5¢
Pricedger fair probability
1%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+3.0 pts
On NO after fees · medium confidence
Volume
649,121
Fine-print risk
42/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in…
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