Polymarket (Global)
US recession by end of 2026?
Updated 2m ago · Settles Jan 31, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
7¢
Bid 6¢ · Ask 7¢
Pricedger fair probability
6%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+0.4 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
2,277,336
Fine-print risk
2/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession h…
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