Polymarket (Global)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
December 31
Updated 58m ago · Settles Jan 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
5¢
Bid 4¢ · Ask 5¢
Pricedger fair probability
2%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+2.2 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
2,406,321
Fine-print risk
52/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or…
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