Polymarket (Global)
US military draft authorized in 2026?
Updated 10m ago · Settles Jan 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
4¢
Bid 3¢ · Ask 4¢
Pricedger fair probability
1%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+2.0 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
544,264
Fine-print risk
36/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will…
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