Polymarket (Global)
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?
October 31
Updated 3m ago · Settles Nov 1, 26
Polymarket (Global) YES
18¢
Bid 17¢ · Ask 19¢
Pricedger fair probability
15%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+1.6 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
59,338
Fine-print risk
44/100
Resolution-rule audit
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