Polymarket (Global)
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 6?
November 6
Updated 22m ago · Settles Nov 7, 26
Polymarket (Global) YES
4¢
Bid 3¢ · Ask 4¢
Pricedger fair probability
1%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+2.0 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
70,120
Fine-print risk
44/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between the United States and Iran. A qualifying…
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