Polymarket (Global)
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?
December 31
Updated 20m ago · Settles Jan 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
36¢
Bid 35¢ · Ask 36¢
Pricedger fair probability
34%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+0.7 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
29,279
Fine-print risk
44/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between the United States and Iran. A qualifying…
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