Polymarket (Global)
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?
Updated 9m ago · Settles Nov 1, 26
Polymarket (Global) YES
66¢
Bid 65¢ · Ask 66¢
Pricedger fair probability
66%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+0.4 pts
On YES after fees · low confidence
Volume
32,689
Fine-print risk
48/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
On October 9, 2026, Donald Trump announced an agreement with Vladimir Putin to import Russian diesel fuel, and the United States Treasury issued General License 135 authorizing the importation of Russian-origin diesel fuel into the United States through April 7, 2027 (see: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/117412435306815143 & https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20261009_33). This market will resol…
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