Polymarket (Global)
US imports Russian diesel by November 30?
November 30
Updated 29m ago · Settles Dec 1, 26
Polymarket (Global) YES
32¢
Bid 31¢ · Ask 32¢
Pricedger fair probability
30%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+0.6 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
31,189
Fine-print risk
48/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
On October 9, 2026, Donald Trump announced an agreement with Vladimir Putin to import Russian diesel fuel, and the United States Treasury issued General License 135 authorizing the importation of Russian-origin diesel fuel into the United States through April 7, 2027 (see: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/117412435306815143 & https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20261009_33). This market will resol…
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