Polymarket (Global)
US imports Russian diesel by December 31?
December 31
Updated 59m ago · Settles Jan 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
86¢
Bid 85¢ · Ask 87¢
Pricedger fair probability
88%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+1.2 pts
On YES after fees · low confidence
Volume
42,826
Fine-print risk
48/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
On October 9, 2026, Donald Trump announced an agreement with Vladimir Putin to import Russian diesel fuel, and the United States Treasury issued General License 135 authorizing the importation of Russian-origin diesel fuel into the United States through April 7, 2027 (see: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/117412435306815143 & https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20261009_33). This market will resol…
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