Polymarket (Global)
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?
Updated 26m ago · Settles Jan 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
6¢
Bid 5¢ · Ask 6¢
Pricedger fair probability
2%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+3.1 pts
On NO after fees · medium confidence
Volume
41,958
Fine-print risk
46/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States formally commits to giving Ukraine a security guarantee, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the Trump administration and the Government of Ukraine, which creates a binding obligation for the United States to defend or directly intervene on Ukraine’s behalf, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No…
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