Polymarket (Global)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Updated 13m ago · Settles Jan 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
9¢
Bid 8¢ · Ask 9¢
Pricedger fair probability
5%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+2.8 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
2,843,025
Fine-print risk
40/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalizatio…
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