Polymarket (Global)
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?
December 31, 2026
Updated 25m ago · Settles Jan 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
3¢
Bid 2¢ · Ask 3¢
Pricedger fair probability
1%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+1.0 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
99,274
Fine-print risk
40/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to formally recognize Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, thi…
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