Polymarket (Global)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026?
December 31, 2026
Updated 1h ago · Settles Jan 1, 27 · archived
Polymarket (Global) YES
4¢
Bid 3¢ · Ask 4¢
Pricedger fair probability
1%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+2.0 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
177,630
Fine-print risk
34/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, re…
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