Polymarket (Global)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2027?
March 31, 2027
Updated 27m ago · Settles Apr 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
24¢
Bid 23¢ · Ask 24¢
Pricedger fair probability
21%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+1.6 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
45,891
Fine-print risk
70/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET) on the specified date and remains continuously in effect for at least 10 calendar days. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A ceasefire refers to any mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is officially announced by both coun…
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