Polymarket (Global)
Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026?
Not resumed by October 20
Updated 45m ago · Settles Oct 21, 26
Polymarket (Global) YES
81¢
Bid 79¢ · Ask 82¢
Pricedger fair probability
82%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+0.3 pts
On YES after fees · low confidence
Volume
28,304
Fine-print risk
55/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
On September 25, 2026, amid reports that its AI agents had probed U.S. government websites, including those of the Census Bureau and Education Department, OpenAI disclosed a pause in training, evaluation, and inference involving tool use for its most capable models. This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI announces that it has resumed training covered by the pause announced on Se…
Full clause-by-clause forensic audit is available inside the terminal.
Whale flow & Smart Money Divergence
See whether large traders are positioning with or against the price move on this contract.
Model ensemble & AI Deep Dive
Quant, base-rate and AI estimates compared on one scale, with clause-level fine-print analysis.
Quarter-Kelly paper sizing
Exact stake, expected value and scenario matrix for your bankroll — paper trading only.
Locked previews show illustrative sample figures.
The full Pricedger analysis is inside the terminal
Visible Ensemble consensus, AI Deep Dive with clause-by-clause fine print, whale flow and Smart Money Divergence, cross-exchange gaps, price history and quarter-Kelly paper sizing. 7-day free trial, no card required.
See the full Pricedger analysisResearch and paper trading only — not financial advice. Model estimates can be wrong. Not affiliated with Kalshi or Polymarket. Methodology