Polymarket (Global)
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
Updated 27m ago · Settles Dec 31, 26
Polymarket (Global) YES
83¢
Bid 82¢ · Ask 83¢
Pricedger fair probability
84%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+1.5 pts
On YES after fees · low confidence
Volume
817,355
Fine-print risk
18/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET: - Trump out as President - China invades Taiwan - Xi Jinping out - U.S. invades Iran - Iranian regime falls - Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’ - Jeffrey Epstein alive - Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate - Russia invades a NATO country - Trump acquires Greenland - 9.0 o…
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