Polymarket (Global)
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026?
December 31, 2026
Updated 32m ago · Settles Jan 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
8¢
Bid 7¢ · Ask 8¢
Pricedger fair probability
5%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+2.0 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
277,422
Fine-print risk
30/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage ceases to be the Leader of Reform UK for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Nigel Farage’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. T…
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