Polymarket (Global)
Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 31?
October 31, 2026
Updated 17m ago · Settles Nov 1, 26
Polymarket (Global) YES
14¢
Bid 13¢ · Ask 15¢
Pricedger fair probability
11%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+1.9 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
29,158
Fine-print risk
24/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a confirmed case of pneumonic plague in a human is reported in the Russian Federation at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Moscow time, . Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "confirmed case" is a case explicitly identified by a qualifying source as laboratory-confirmed Yersinia pestis infection with pneumonic (pulmonary) involvement, or…
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