Polymarket (Global)
Natural Disaster in 2026?
Updated 18m ago · Settles Mar 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
9¢
Bid 8¢ · Ask 9¢
Pricedger fair probability
6%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+2.0 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
250,123
Fine-print risk
8/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET: - A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US - A major meteor strikes (10kt+) - A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6) - An 8.5+ earthquake occurs Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.…
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