Polymarket (Global)
NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026?
November 30
Updated 52m ago · Settles Dec 1, 26
Polymarket (Global) YES
26¢
Bid 25¢ · Ask 26¢
Pricedger fair probability
24%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+1.5 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
56,526
Fine-print risk
48/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement betwee…
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