Polymarket (Global)
NATO article 5 before 2027?
Updated 19m ago · Settles Jan 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
5¢
Bid 4¢ · Ask 6¢
Pricedger fair probability
1%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+2.6 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
282,939
Fine-print risk
8/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.
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