Polymarket (Global)
Meta's Watermelon released by October 31, 2026?
October 31
Updated 1h ago · Settles Oct 31, 26 · archived
Polymarket (Global) YES
63¢
Bid 57¢ · Ask 69¢
Pricedger fair probability
64%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
-5.2 pts
On YES after fees · low confidence
Volume
38,209
Fine-print risk
40/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon." This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model i…
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