Polymarket (Global)
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
Updated 25m ago · Settles Mar 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
4¢
Bid 3¢ · Ask 5¢
Pricedger fair probability
1%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+1.8 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
214,907
Fine-print risk
40/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify. The primary re…
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