Polymarket (Global)
Macron out by December 31, 2026?
December 31, 2026
Updated 3m ago · Settles Jan 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
6¢
Bid 5¢ · Ask 6¢
Pricedger fair probability
3%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+2.2 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
39,698
Fine-print risk
30/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, ho…
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