Polymarket (Global)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?
December 31
Updated 13m ago · Settles Jan 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
7¢
Bid 6¢ · Ask 7¢
Pricedger fair probability
4%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+2.1 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
693,449
Fine-print risk
48/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Tempor…
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