Polymarket (Global)
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?
December 31
Updated 22m ago · Settles Jan 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
15¢
Bid 14¢ · Ask 15¢
Pricedger fair probability
12%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+2.3 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
65,155
Fine-print risk
46/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza. This ma…
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