Polymarket (Global)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?
December 31
Updated 24m ago · Settles Jan 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
3¢
Bid 2¢ · Ask 4¢
Pricedger fair probability
1%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+1.0 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
252,080
Fine-print risk
36/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israel…
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