Polymarket (Global)
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?
October 31
Updated 2m ago · Settles Oct 31, 26
Polymarket (Global) YES
16¢
Bid 15¢ · Ask 16¢
Pricedger fair probability
13%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+2.3 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
312,105
Fine-print risk
44/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between Oman and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between Oman and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must…
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