Polymarket (Global)
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
Updated 18m ago · Settles Jan 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
5¢
Bid 5¢ · Ask 5¢
Pricedger fair probability
1%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+3.6 pts
On NO after fees · medium confidence
Volume
269,716
Fine-print risk
36/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explo…
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