Polymarket (Global)
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?
June 30, 2027
Updated 39m ago · Settles Jul 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
23¢
Bid 22¢ · Ask 23¢
Pricedger fair probability
20%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+1.7 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
361,779
Fine-print risk
30/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as th…
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