Polymarket (Global)
Iran leadership change by December 31?
December 31
Updated 5m ago · Settles Jan 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
11¢
Bid 10¢ · Ask 11¢
Pricedger fair probability
7%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+2.7 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
5,079,461
Fine-print risk
30/100
Resolution-rule audit
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