Polymarket (Global)
Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?
November 30
Updated 8m ago · Settles Dec 1, 26
Polymarket (Global) YES
24¢
Bid 23¢ · Ask 25¢
Pricedger fair probability
22%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+1.1 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
74,251
Fine-print risk
48/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “general closure” refers to a cancellation or suspension of aviation which is generally applicable to all commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace (“Tehran FIR”). A qualify…
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