Polymarket (Global)
Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2026?
December 31, 2026
Updated 9m ago · Settles Jan 1, 27
Polymarket (Global) YES
8¢
Bid 7¢ · Ask 9¢
Pricedger fair probability
5%
Deterministic model estimate
Potential edge
+2.4 pts
On NO after fees · low confidence
Volume
176,582
Fine-print risk
40/100
Resolution-rule audit
Resolution rules — summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its lea…
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